Published Thursday, the European Space Agency’s Zero Debris Technical Booklet outlines a framework for the world’s space-faring nations to deorbit the most dangerous space junk, making low Earth orbit a safer place to transit. If followed, the ESA believes it would create a debris-neutral LEO, safeguarding access to the orbital zone and the space beyond it for decades to come.
The problem of orbital debris buildup is one that the entire space-faring world has been aware of for decades. Kessler Syndrome was proposed in 1978, and though there have been some efforts to deorbit a limited quantity of problematic space debris, the issue has only grown more acute in recent years. It was just last November that Chinese taikonauts were stranded on the Tiangong space station after debris damaged their return capsule.
The ESA’s new technical document projects the problem will only worsen, too. With over 12,000 active satellites currently in orbit, the ESA projects that number will rise to over 40,000 by the 2030s. That makes space ever more crowded, and with every launch, there is the potential for additional debris.
Credit: ESA
Even if there were no more launches, though, that wouldn’t stop debris from multiplying. It suggests there could be as many as 140 million fragments smaller than a centimeter now orbiting Earth at various orbits, and most of them will stay there for decades or even centuries. Very few of them can be tracked reliably, making LEO increasingly dangerous and unpredictable.
To deal with this issue, the ESA’s framework proposes a number of policies and agreements among space-faring nations and companies:
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Mandated clean up at a satellite’s end of life.
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Improved surveillance for debris and active satellites.
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Developing reliable deorbit systems.
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Improved, lighter shielding for spacecraft and additional redundancy to reduce fragmentation in the event of damage.
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Better data sharing between countries for greater transparency on launches and debris tracking.
Ultimately, it’s about tracking the debris that we can see and shielding against what we can’t. But getting anyone, let alone everyone, to pay for this is complicated and hard to imagine. Meanwhile, the financial costs of debris will continue to rise. As of 2025, they were causing around $100 million worth of damage per year, but that will only grow, and exponentially so if there’s any form of debris cascade.
In theory, Kessler Syndrome could become a reality, making space nearly inaccessible without incredible cost.
The ESA calls on all countries to make these changes within the next 24 months, or face a very different space environment in the 2030s.
